ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF REGIONAL TRADE INFRASTRUCTURE ON RETAIL TRADE TURNOVER (THE CASE OF JIZZAKH REGION)

Abstract

This article examines the development dynamics of the retail trade network in Jizzakh region on the basis of an econometric model. The retail trade network is an important component of the regional economy that coordinates demand and supply in the consumer market and links household incomes with the real sector. Using regression analysis, the study evaluates the key factors affecting the volume of retail trade turnover — per-capita income, the number of retail trade outlets, retail floor-space indicators, the consumer price index, and the share of digital trade. A multifactor linear regression model is constructed, and the statistical significance of the model as well as the degree of influence of each factor on retail turnover is determined. The findings show that the growth of household incomes and the expansion of trade infrastructure exert the dominant influence on the growth of retail turnover, while the growing share of digital trade is markedly affecting the dynamics of the traditional retail network. Based on the conclusions obtained, practical proposals are developed for the development of the retail trade network in Jizzakh region.